О связи уровня личных сбережений и кредитной модели роста потребления написали в Феде СанФранциско
График показывает, что чем больше потребление осуществляется через кредит, тем больше снижается уровень персональных сбережений, и наоборот, уровень сбережений растет при делевереджинге, создавая дополнительный объем сбережений домохозяйств к уже существующим у корпоративного сектора. Использование этих сбережений может происходить через стимулирование корпоративного инвестирования, расширение экспорта и гос.потребление.
Цитата на память из заключения:
In the years leading up to the financial crisis of 2008–2009, a combination of factors including low interest rates, lax lending standards, the proliferation of exotic mortgage products, and the growth of a global market for securitized loans promoted increased household borrowing. Homebuyers with access to easy credit helped bid up U.S. house prices to unprecedented levels relative to rents and disposable income. The rapid rise in household net worth encouraged lenders to ease credit even further based on the assumption that house price appreciation would continue indefinitely. U.S. household leverage, as measured by the ratio of debt to disposable income, reached an all-time high of 130% in 2007.
The U.S. experience was by no means unique. Household leverage in many industrialized countries increased dramatically in the years prior to 2007. Countries exhibiting the largest increases in household leverage tended to experience the fastest rises in house prices over the same period (see Glick and Lansing 2010). House prices in the United States have dropped on average by about 30% from their peak in 2006. In the years since the bursting of the bubble, the personal saving rate trended up from around 1% to about 6% in the third quarter of 2010, while the ratio of household debt to disposable income dropped from 130% to 118%.
A simple empirical model of the saving rate that accounts for changes in the availability of credit to households over time can explain 90% of the variance of the saving rate and tracks the recent uptrend well. Going forward, households may keep trying to reduce excessive debt loads by increasing their saving. On the one hand, higher saving rates imply correspondingly lower rates of domestic household consumption growth so that a larger share of GDP growth would need to come from business investment, net exports, or government spending. On the other hand, an increase in domestic saving would help rebuild household nest eggs in preparation for retirement and also help correct the large imbalance that now exists in the U.S. current account.